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Skip Barber National 2010: Who Can Still Win?

by Ryan Stringfield
Posted September 16, 2010 at 3:35 pm Skip Barber

With the 2010 Skip Barber National Championship season coming to an end, I thought it might be a good time to take a look at which drivers still have a mathematical shot at winning the overall championship.  The Series will conclude their season at Road Atlanta on Oct. 1 following the completion of Rounds 13 & 14.

Despite only having two races left on the calendar, a lot can change heading into October especially when you factor in one race drop for each driver.  You might be surprised at how many drivers still have a mathematical shot at the overall title.  Make the jump for all the exciting details…

What You Need To Know

  • Every driver is allowed one drop (including DNS races)
  • A driver earns 35 points for a win.
  • A driver earns one point per pole position.
  • Pole points will not be dropped from a competitor’s total if their worst result (drop) occurs on the same day as a pole position.
  • The most points a driver can earn at Road Atlanta is 72 (two wins, two poles).
  • If a few drivers decide not to show up for the final weekend, then six drivers still have a mathematical shot at the 2010 Title.

Current Standings Without Drops
The following points are after 12 Rounds and include those who still have a mathematical chance of winning the overall title (assuming not everyone shows up).

  1. Spencer Pigot 379
  2. Isaac Lyons 359
  3. Felix Serralles 334
  4. Dennis Trebing 330
  5. Ashley Freiberg 319
  6. Nick Andries 313

Full Standings

Current Standings With A Drop Factored In
Remember there are two races remaining and a driver could end up dropping one of those two races instead of the round selected below.

  1. Spencer Pigot – 356 (drops Rd. 6, but retains one point for pole)
  2. Isaac Lyons – 337 (drops Rd. 10)
  3. Felix Serralles – 331 (drops Rd. 1)
  4. Dennis Trebing – 308 (drops Rd. 6)
  5. Ashley Freiberg – 301 (drops Rd. 3)
  6. Nick Andries – 292 (drops Rd. 10)

So… What Does This All Mean? (Who Can Still Win)

Alright, let’s get right into it.  The minimum number of points attainable for the final rounds at Road Atlanta are impossible to figure at this point, simply because there are too many variables.  But, if you look at the current standings, the least number of points picked up by a competitor (in a single race) is 16.  If you double that, to include both Round 13 & 14, you end up with a total of 32 points.  Just for fun, we’ll use that number.

The most points a driver can earn during the final weekend is 72.  The least amount of points — in theory — is 32, assuming everyone participates.  With that in mind, I’ve listed the best and worst points projection for the top-six drivers below.

Here’s where it gets confusing.  For a drivers best possible finish, I’ve added 72 points to their current drop total listed above.  For their worst possible finish, I’ve added 32 points and subtracted 16 to their current total… that way we’re dropping one of their feasible 16 point finishes.

In reality, they might not show up and their total for the weekend would be zero points which would change the projection entirely.

Best and Worst Estimate
There are simply too many variables to accurately calculate a drivers worst possible points’ total, but I gave it a shot anyway using the ideology above.

Spencer Pigot (Best-428, Worst-395) **
Isaac Lyons (Best-409, Worst-375) **
Felix Serralles (Best-403, Worst-350) **
Dennis Trebing (Best-380, Worst-346)
Ashley Freiberg (Best-373, Worst-335)
Nick Andries (Best-364, Worst-329)

Three Can Win If Everyone Shows Up (In Theory)

Assuming everyone shows up for the final two races, there are only three drivers who have a legitimate shot at claiming the overall championship;  Spencer Pigot, Isaac Lyons, and Felix Serralles.  Using the word legitimate might be a stretch.

Regardless, the final weekend should offer some very exciting racing and if weird things happen, you never know who will be crowned the 2010 Skip Barber National Champion.

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